With a fifth- and a second-place finish in Qatar, Francesco Bagnaia came out of the penultimate MotoGP weekend with a 21-point lead over his direct rival, Jorge Martin. This weekend brings the final act in a season that has been both exciting and hard-fought, with the title set to be decided against the backdrop of the Ricardo Tormo circuit in Valencia. It was here that Bagnaia beat Fabio Quartararo to the title, and with the introduction of the Sprint race in 2023, the Italian could already triumph on Saturday, in the short race.

Bagnaia’s chances at Valencia

Here are the combinations that would see Bagnaia crowned champion:

- If Pecco wins the Sprint and Martin finishes third;

- If Pecco finishes second and Martin crosses the line fifth;

- If Pecco places third and Martin seventh;

- If Pecco finishes fourth and Martin eighth.

We know that Martin is very strong in the Sprint, the winner of eight of the 19 short races run so far in fact, in contrast to Bagnaia, who has won four.