Italy GP prediction: race and sprint analysis ahead of Mugello

After several weeks off following the French Le Mans round, the MotoGP riders are ready to get back out on track for one of the most highly anticipated races of the season, or rather the Italian round in the Tuscan hills of Mugello. Let’s consider the likely favourites as well as a few dark horses.

Bagnaia the clear favourite at his home track

Despite a few false moves too many, current world champion Francesco Bagnaia remains the number one favourite according to the bookies, who give the factory Ducati rider 2.25 odds of winning in Saturday’s sprint at his home track. Looking at the betting odds, his main rivals look to be two other Ducati Desmosedici riders, or rather Marco Bezzecchi and Jorge Martin, both with odds of 5.00 and highly competitive in the first five races of the season, with the Spaniard proving to be a specialist in those ‘all-or-nothing’ races.

Our prediction: look out for Binder and Márquez in the Sprint

As well as the two Ducatisti mentioned above, we think (at least) two more names might stand out and be fighting for podium positions in Saturday’s short race. We’re talking about South African Brad Binder, who has already won with KTM this year and looks like he might have what it takes at Mugello too, and Marc Márquez who, despite the difficulties with the Honda, is always able to patch things up, which makes him an unknown quantity towards the top of the timesheets.

And we cannot overlook the Aprilia riders, Aleix Espargaró and Maverick Vinales, two more possible frontrunners. They have odds of 16.00 but, in a race so important to the Veneto-based manufacturer, they’ll be all out for a good result. Lastly, despite the difficulties in the first races owing to a Yamaha that is not at the level of its rivals, Fabio Quartararo will be looking for a comeback and shouldn’t be underestimated in the Sprint, his odds of winning at 21.00.