Vinales to Honda? If Marquez leaves, the MotoGP market will go crazy

Maverick Vinales currently lies seventh in the MotoGP general standings, having amassed 139 points and three podiums to date. Clearly happy and apparently ‘relaxed’ about his guaranteed spot on the factory Aprilia team, Top Gun may nevertheless be having some sleepless nights. And not because of any problems inside the Noale manufacturer’s garage, but rather due to the fact that developments on the market might involve him.

Vinales, a valuable MotoGP player

We’re talking about a 28-year old Catalan rider who’s competed in the world championship since 2011, the winner of the 2013 Moto3 title and multiple Moto2 and MotoGP races, for a total of 25 wins and 73 podiums. Though still relatively young, Top Gun is undoubtedly a world championship expert.

Added to this is the fact he competed for both Suzuki and Yamaha before moving to Aprilia. Strong with the GSX-RR, M1 and RS-GP, "Vinny" has proved himself as one of the big names, though is still to experience that ultimate high note that would definitively confirm his status.

Aside from his all-important consistency, Maverick is a factory rider who, if he were to go on the market, has a worth in line with his CV. Contracted to Aprilia until the end of the 2024 season, the number 12 rider is involved in negotiations regarding a fellow countryman, a certain Marc Marquez.

Vinales to Honda: how to replace Marc Marquez?

If Marc Marquez really decides to leave Honda, how will the manufacturer find a worthy replacement? As things stand, and honestly speaking, it’s impossible. The Tokyo giant, in the form of the Repsol HRC team, might go for a young outsider, but in that case a period of apprenticeship would be required.

Climbing aboard the cantankerous and temperamental RC213 V has proved tricky for riders of the calibre of Alex Rins – though the LCR won at Austin - and Joan Mir, the 2020 world title winner with Suzuki. Right now, the only ‘phenomenon’ who might fit the bill is Pedro Acosta, but he’s linked to KTM.

And so, if the 30-year old Cervera native were to pack his bags and move to Gresini, how might the irreplaceable be replaced? With Johann Zarco, who already has an agreement with Lucio Cecchinello’s satellite team? Iker Lecuona, who is struggling in SBK and has had difficulty during his MotoGP outings?

Who of the big names is left? Fabio Quartararo, "stuck at Yamaha". Or, the man himself, Maverick Vinales.