MotoGP, will Quartararo win the 2022 title? Here’s what the stats say

Fabio Quartararo lies respectively 21 and 66 points ahead of Aleix Espargaro (second) and Francesco Bagnaia (fourth), the Frenchman holding a solid lead mid-way through the championship. He committed a first serious mistake at Assen but nevertheless headed off on holiday safe in the knowledge that he still has a comfortable advantage. With that in mind, we've taken a look at the stats and one thing is very clear - to date, 85% of world champions were already lying first at the mid-way point. But that remaining 15% is a figure not to be underestimated.

2008 between Valentino Rossi and Dani Pedrosa

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Falling into this latter category is Valentino Rossi, during the 2008 season. Mid-season, he was lying second, just four points behind Dani Pedrosa but went on to win the title, his third with Yamaha. The Spaniard’s crash in Germany followed by injury to his left hand and right ankle meant that he was no longer able to fight and the Doctor was crowned champion three rounds ahead of time, in Japan.

Lorenzo’s last title and Mir’s win fall into the 15%

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Another case that bucks the trend is that of Jorge Lorenzo in 2015. At the mid-way point, he was lying thirteen points behind then team-mate Rossi. That year, we watched a long battle that continued right to the end, the Majorcan ultimately winning the title by just five points at the final Valencia round. And then there’s 2020, when a consistent Joan Mir secured the title, despite having placed just fourth mid-season, behind Andrea Dovizioso, Fabio Quartararo and Maverick Viñales. In the second half of the season he was able to score more than twice the points of the Frenchman, with four podiums, which included his first win.

As of now, there are still 225 points up for grabs, with new pages of motorcycle history set to be written during the last nine races. And once it’s over, we’ll see exactly which of the two percentages has grown.

Translated by Heather Watson

MotoGP, Yamaha is already working with a view to 2023